|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 2, 2017 4:00:03 GMT
Early lines I like (some lines aren't even up).
-Louisville -2.5 is nice. Unlike Clemson, NC State doesn't have an all-NFL line so they won't stop him like they did, they may contain LJ a bit.
-Texas Tech -17 against Kansas. Kansas is ass and probably has another 0-fer conference play season. I'm gonna be parlaying the opponent ML into a lot of stuff as well just assume that for anytime later on.
-Georgia -16.5 against Vanderbilt. Georgia is too good on both sides for Vandy to be within 3 scores I think, I'll wait and see how this one winds up though.
-Duke +2 against Virginia. Two slightly above average teams, this one is in Virginia. I kinda like this but not a lot. Duke has a solid but not spectacular offense, and a good but not very good defense. Virginia has a good but not that good offense, and a okay defense. Duke should be able to score enough on them to keep them within a field goal I think.
Florida -6.5 against LSU. LSU sucks, but their coach is probably coaching for his job right now after a lucky win sandwiched around two bad bad bad bad bad losses. Florida might not be a good offense but they found something last week. They can win by a TD I think.
Miami against FSU -3.5 is instant lock material take it right now.
Interesting gambles, but ML wins out games:
TCU ML against WVU. They're not 13.5 points better, but they're probably something better than WVU. WVU scores a lot, TCU kind of has a solid defense. I need to do some research on their offensive line since that's TCU's biggest strength imo, although their corners are solid but nothing special.
Big Brother vs Little Brother, Me vs TSK, -14. Michigan showed some stuff offensively last time out, this is a rivalry game, it's in an Ann Arbor, the big brother is coming off a bye week, the little brother is coming off a nice win against Iowa. Don't take the points because Michigan still might not have found the touch offensively, but the ML should be Maize.
Nebraska has rallied back a bit after an embarrassing pair of losses. They're underdogs against Wisconsin by 13. I think the spread is safe, but just to be sure let's put Wisconsin in the ML category.
Arkansas isn't a remarkable team, they've beaten who they should beat, lost the game they should have, and slightly upset the Aggies. But they're a -2.5 against South Carolina. Who showed some flashes offensively last week against an Aggies team that isn't anything above awful on defense. Arkansas is -2.5 I like it. I know I've hated on South Carolina, but for the last 3 games it's been easy money. Take em again. They're only in this category because I'm not sure Arkansas's strength plays into South Carolina's weaknesses so I just think they're a ML play, but I do like the spread enough to mention it.
Games I need to research more but wtf
Stanford -6 against Utah?
Really?
-6?
REALLY?!?!!?
The Utes have beaten everyone they should have and they're 4-0, so I'll give them credit. But the game is in Stanford. The Cardinal aren't good on defense against good offenses, but Utah isn't anything special so far this year. They've only padded the boxscore against an extremely shitty opponent. They're a fine team, but they're not anything special. I don't understand this line.
Maryland isn't a bad team this year probably. They've got two shocking wins (@texas and @minnesota) They lost to a ho-hum okay I guess UCF team badly though. But I kinda like their cover potential against Ohio State at +32. That's a lot of points for a team that can score and semi-play defense against decent offenses. It's just a lot of points. That's all I'm saying.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Oct 5, 2017 16:31:10 GMT
My picks for tonight.
Canadiens money line
Under on the Kings and Flyers
Team totals
Patriots over
Bucs over
Over 54.5 in the game as well
I would also love to bet over on the receiving yards for Evans and Brate.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 5, 2017 19:41:19 GMT
My picks for tonight. Canadiens money line Under on the Kings and Flyers Team totals Patriots over Bucs over Over 54.5 in the game as well I would also love to bet over on the receiving yards for Evans and Brate. I'm thinking over 54.5 for the game as well. Bucs over 24 seems good too. considering each of their games has been over 30 for the opposing team. tsk thoughts? |
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Oct 5, 2017 19:42:20 GMT
My picks for tonight. Canadiens money line Under on the Kings and Flyers Team totals Patriots over Bucs over Over 54.5 in the game as well I would also love to bet over on the receiving yards for Evans and Brate. I'm thinking over 54.5 for the game as well. Bucs over 24 seems good too. considering each of their games has been over 30 for the opposing team. tsk thoughts? I like all of the overs Thursday game scares me a little but I feel like this is a game that ends up with the loser at 28 points |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 5, 2017 19:47:12 GMT
I'm thinking over 54.5 for the game as well. Bucs over 24 seems good too. considering each of their games has been over 30 for the opposing team. tsk thoughts? I like all of the overs Thursday game scares me a little but I feel like this is a game that ends up with the loser at 28 points Agreed, but Pats with little turnaround time is nice. Bill's great but I'm not sure he can work a miracle in 3 days. There's the chance of the Jameis 3 awful picks game happening but ehhhhh. |
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Oct 6, 2017 1:18:55 GMT
Man the over currently looks horrid.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Oct 6, 2017 1:25:01 GMT
Man the over currently looks horrid. Thursday games very very scary |
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Oct 6, 2017 1:29:52 GMT
It can be a shootout in the 2nd half
|
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Oct 6, 2017 1:30:04 GMT
Just pray man pray!
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 6, 2017 3:43:55 GMT
I think we're like 1-4, 1-5 on our TB bets this year.  We missed tonight's over, team over, I think TB covered against the Giants last week? I know my -1 hit but I don't remember the actual line. I missed on them vs the Vikings, and I think we bet on them week 2, and missed didn't we? |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 9, 2017 4:30:47 GMT
Won $50ish this weekend. If the Bills hadn't sucked ass in the second half I would have won $200 though :/
Way Too Early NCAA lines: (3-3 overall last week; lock hit)
Not a lot to like so far. I want some movement.
-Duke +6.5 is nice, but I didn't like the Virginia performance. It's good and I think that's a winning line because of how bad FSU is overall. Blackman's improved but he's still just below average I'd say. If this goes up to over a 1 game score I like it, but until then eh.
A&M +3.5 against Florida is good but not really great. It should be a close game. But still not anything I'd gamble on it.
Aaaand that's it. maybe when the over unders come out it'll be better, but everything is just bad. Nothing that screams bet me.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 17, 2017 5:05:26 GMT
1-0 on the lines last week (Duke never moved that I saw), and I sat those out. But I like some lines this week
-Iowa in a pick over Northwestern. I don't know why this is a pick em game right now. On a neutral field Iowa is more than a 3 point favorite in my eyes. They're 4-2 with with the 2 losses by a combined 9 to Penn State and Sparty. Northwestern play a great first half and last 6 minutes against Wisconsin this year, and beat some bad teams. I don't think Iowa easily wins or anything because it's a home game for Northwestern, but I do like them a fair bit to win.
-Louisville +6.5 against FSU. They lost to an underrated but not special BC last week, and FSU's front 4 is legit as fuck so LJ won't have a great game but I think buying the hook (or waiting) till +7 is nice. It's good not great. FSU still has barely won the games they've won against Wake and Duke (1 score games) so this should be a relatively safe pick. I'd make it my lock but there's something else that's a little bit better. Plus....Louisville hasn't beaten anyone this year. The two good teams they've faced they got blown out by (Clemson and NC state)
-Michigan State -7 against Indiana, I have no idea why they're only a one score favorite. Go ahead and lock this in right now.
AND
UCLA -7 against Oregon. This is gonna be a super high scoring game (take the over if it's under 85) The wheels are off in Eugene. Hell I think they're rolling down the hills and into the ocean as we speak. They're barely on for UCLA, but at least they're still loosely attached. Hammer this shit. Parlay it with something.
Good but not quite a lock
Miami -14.5 against Syracuse. Cuse is getting a touch overrated after last week's upset. I think Miami is still a 2 score better team but we'll see.
LSU -6.5 against Ole Miss I've given up on predicting what kind of a team LSU is, so this is probably a fade pick but I think they're better than Ole Miss by a bit.
USC +3.5 against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is poop, Bryan Kelly is maybe not coaching for his job (they're 5-1) but he is probably feeling the seat warming up since they haven't done anything lately and this is their first big game this year.
Maybe worth a look later
Penn State -10, I don't bet my team in NCAA but Michigan isn't a team within two scores of Penn State. I think this line might creep closer to a one score game.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Oct 17, 2017 20:40:32 GMT
Early NFL Lines I like
Panthers -3 (@bears)
Jags -3 (@colts)
Dolphins -3 (vs Jets)
Vikings -5.5 (vs Ravens)
Seahawks -5.5 (@giants)
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 22, 2017 3:23:04 GMT
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 22, 2017 6:33:15 GMT
1-0 on the lines last week (Duke never moved that I saw), and I sat those out. But I like some lines this week -Iowa in a pick over Northwestern. I don't know why this is a pick em game right now. On a neutral field Iowa is more than a 3 point favorite in my eyes. They're 4-2 with with the 2 losses by a combined 9 to Penn State and Sparty. Northwestern play a great first half and last 6 minutes against Wisconsin this year, and beat some bad teams. I don't think Iowa easily wins or anything because it's a home game for Northwestern, but I do like them a fair bit to win. -Louisville +6.5 against FSU. They lost to an underrated but not special BC last week, and FSU's front 4 is legit as fuck so LJ won't have a great game but I think buying the hook (or waiting) till +7 is nice. It's good not great. FSU still has barely won the games they've won against Wake and Duke (1 score games) so this should be a relatively safe pick. I'd make it my lock but there's something else that's a little bit better. Plus....Louisville hasn't beaten anyone this year. The two good teams they've faced they got blown out by (Clemson and NC state) -Michigan State -7 against Indiana, I have no idea why they're only a one score favorite. Go ahead and lock this in right now. AND UCLA -7 against Oregon. This is gonna be a super high scoring game (take the over if it's under 85) The wheels are off in Eugene. Hell I think they're rolling down the hills and into the ocean as we speak. They're barely on for UCLA, but at least they're still loosely attached. Hammer this shit. Parlay it with something. Good but not quite a lock Miami -14.5 against Syracuse. Cuse is getting a touch overrated after last week's upset. I think Miami is still a 2 score better team but we'll see. LSU -6.5 against Ole Miss I've given up on predicting what kind of a team LSU is, so this is probably a fade pick but I think they're better than Ole Miss by a bit. USC +3.5 against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is poop, Bryan Kelly is maybe not coaching for his job (they're 5-1) but he is probably feeling the seat warming up since they haven't done anything lately and this is their first big game this year. Maybe worth a look later Penn State -10, I don't bet my team in NCAA but Michigan isn't a team within two scores of Penn State. I think this line might creep closer to a one score game. 2-0 on locks 1-1 on the good games 1-2 on the not quite a lock schedule. not a bad weekend for me personally. I'm like 8-1 on locks now I think. Also FYI we're fading Oregon the rest of the way. They're done. I don't know what happened but they haven't been the same after the trip to Death Valley, maybe they just took advantage of weaker teams beforehand to rack up their stats. Also I think BYU is 1-3 against the spread now since I said I was gonna fade them every week. I should also rename the "not quite a lock" part of my posts since I do my lock with the other good bets section....I'll fix that next post. |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Oct 30, 2017 1:35:36 GMT
Lots of early lines I like
Too early lines of the week:
Clemson -7 against NC State. NC state is good, but Clemson is very good.NC state's good defense shouldn't have a great day against Clemson's offense. This game will be close-ish but I don't think it's a one score game.
Baylor-9.5 against Kansas. Battle of the Beatables. Baylor fighting for their first win, Kansas fighting for the second win of the year. Both schools's last chance at it in all likelihood. Baylor has no defense really, but their offense should win by a couple scores. They've been in probably half their games (even after their WR got a season ending injury). A legit chance to win a couple of them. They can score. If the o/u is 60 or lower, take it. Baylor might put up 40 alone and Kansas could easily put up 30.
Wisconsin -9 against Indiana. Lock. Team I feel might be the best in the nation vs a random team.
Florida +3 against Mizzou. Mizzou is shit. I don't care if this is a home game, they've just looked better because they haven't played anyone the last couple weeks. Florida got hammered by Geowja. Florida can't score, but they've beaten the shitty teams they should beat and the only wtf loss is LSU.
Syracuse +4. Cuse is a sneaky team. FSU is bad and can't score. Their defense is fine but they're not good.
Iowa State +2.5. It isn't in Ames, but they've been pure fire since losing to Texas. WVU is in a slight tailspin. I don't know why this line is this way.
Games I like, but the line is a little off.
Miami +2.5 against VT. Miami hasn't blown anyone out since week 3 (they're undefeated still) and it's a home game. I don't understand how on a neutral field Vegas thinks they're a 5.5 dog. I don't get it. Normally I'd make this a lock, but I feel like there's something I'm missing. But this line just seems weird to me, and I feel like I'm missing something.
Northwestern +2. I think they're winning this game, but the line is gonna shift later this week. People are gonna hammer the Nebraska line.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Nov 4, 2017 20:58:57 GMT
tsk Scottie4Hottie you guys like anything this week? I like Colts +7 (under 45.5 too) Eagles -7.5 Seahawks -7 and maybe Lions -2
|
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Nov 4, 2017 21:03:39 GMT
Colts + 7.5
Falcons -1.5
Rams -4.5
Bal vs Ten under
Ind vs Hou under
Cin vs Jak under
|
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Nov 4, 2017 21:05:28 GMT
tsk Scottie4Hottie you guys like anything this week? I like Colts +7 (under 45.5 too) Eagles -7.5 Seahawks -7 and maybe Lions -2 Rams -4 and redskins +7.5 |
|
|
|
|
Post by Scottie4Hottie on Nov 4, 2017 21:05:53 GMT
  4 for 4 today. Started at 400 dollars now I’m close to 1,300. Heisenberg thank you to New Zealand for starting off my day to the right direction. |
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Nov 4, 2017 21:05:57 GMT
I like that we like opposite sides of the skins hawks game lol
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Nov 4, 2017 21:17:21 GMT
I like that we like opposite sides of the skins hawks game lol I'm taking my NCAAF formula to the pros No o-line? Home game for Seattle? RIP skins. The injuries to the skill guys are just bonuses. |
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Nov 6, 2017 0:37:28 GMT
tsk Scottie4Hottie you guys like anything this week? I like Colts +7 (under 45.5 too) Eagles -7.5 Seahawks -7 and maybe Lions -2 Rams -4 and redskins +7.5 Let's go |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Nov 6, 2017 6:33:27 GMT
Lots of early lines I like Too early lines of the week: Clemson -7 against NC State. NC state is good, but Clemson is very good.NC state's good defense shouldn't have a great day against Clemson's offense. This game will be close-ish but I don't think it's a one score game. Baylor-9.5 against Kansas. Battle of the Beatables. Baylor fighting for their first win, Kansas fighting for the second win of the year. Both schools's last chance at it in all likelihood. Baylor has no defense really, but their offense should win by a couple scores. They've been in probably half their games (even after their WR got a season ending injury). A legit chance to win a couple of them. They can score. If the o/u is 60 or lower, take it. Baylor might put up 40 alone and Kansas could easily put up 30. Wisconsin -9 against Indiana. Lock. Team I feel might be the best in the nation vs a random team. Florida +3 against Mizzou. Mizzou is shit. I don't care if this is a home game, they've just looked better because they haven't played anyone the last couple weeks. Florida got hammered by Geowja. Florida can't score, but they've beaten the shitty teams they should beat and the only wtf loss is LSU. Syracuse +4. Cuse is a sneaky team. FSU is bad and can't score. Their defense is fine but they're not good. Iowa State +2.5. It isn't in Ames, but they've been pure fire since losing to Texas. WVU is in a slight tailspin. I don't know why this line is this way. Games I like, but the line is a little off. Miami +2.5 against VT. Miami hasn't blown anyone out since week 3 (they're undefeated still) and it's a home game. I don't understand how on a neutral field Vegas thinks they're a 5.5 dog. I don't get it. Normally I'd make this a lock, but I feel like there's something I'm missing. But this line just seems weird to me, and I feel like I'm missing something. Northwestern +2. I think they're winning this game, but the line is gonna shift later this week. People are gonna hammer the Nebraska line. 1-0 on locks last week 5-2 overall, not bad. Still surprised Iowa State lost. |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Nov 6, 2017 17:39:08 GMT
Less games I like this week
Washington -7 @stanford. Stanford's done for the year, not in terms of play but they're bowl eligible now and they have no shot at winning the conference championship, they're slightly banged up, and Washington has to win out to stay alive. This is their last tough game, and I feel like the -10 they'd be on a neutral field is more fair.
Texas Tech -7.5 @baylor. Texas Tech is better than a touchdown better. Fade Baylor, they're not coming within 7.5, I'd buy the hook for a push but no worries.
Wake Forest in a pick em at Syracuse. Not sure why WF isn't favored. I know Syracuse is good at staying close, but I don't think they're sneaking up on Wake. Maybe though.
Georgia -3 against Auburn no write up, just take it. Easy lock.And somehow you're getting +101 right now on the line lol.
Kinda like but the line is a bit off:
Nebraska +2.5 against Minnesota. I think Nebraska is better even though they're more than a bit wonky. I think the line gets hammered down a bit by their fans, so I'd buy the hook asap.
Not counting this in a wager or anything, but if you want some money this is a better than 50/50 shot of hitting imo.
FSU +16.5 against Clemson.FSU plays well defensively until they tired of the offense being dogshit so they just stop playing in the second half. Clemson hasn't scored well so far. It's a bit of a rivalry game so that impacts it, but 16.5 is a lot to give a team. I mean FSU could have this hit if they just get 3 field goals.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Nov 12, 2017 4:06:18 GMT
Less games I like this week Washington -7 @stanford. Stanford's done for the year, not in terms of play but they're bowl eligible now and they have no shot at winning the conference championship, they're slightly banged up, and Washington has to win out to stay alive. This is their last tough game, and I feel like the -10 they'd be on a neutral field is more fair. Texas Tech -7.5 @baylor. Texas Tech is better than a touchdown better. Fade Baylor, they're not coming within 7.5, I'd buy the hook for a push but no worries. Wake Forest in a pick em at Syracuse. Not sure why WF isn't favored. I know Syracuse is good at staying close, but I don't think they're sneaking up on Wake. Maybe though. Georgia -3 against Auburn no write up, just take it. Easy lock.And somehow you're getting +101 right now on the line lol. Kinda like but the line is a bit off: Nebraska +2.5 against Minnesota. I think Nebraska is better even though they're more than a bit wonky. I think the line gets hammered down a bit by their fans, so I'd buy the hook asap. Not counting this in a wager or anything, but if you want some money this is a better than 50/50 shot of hitting imo. FSU +16.5 against Clemson.FSU plays well defensively until they tired of the offense being dogshit so they just stop playing in the second half. Clemson hasn't scored well so far. It's a bit of a rivalry game so that impacts it, but 16.5 is a lot to give a team. I mean FSU could have this hit if they just get 3 field goals. Rough week, luckily I only bet on Georgia.0-1 lock, 1-3 overall. |
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Jan 3, 2018 20:55:45 GMT
So I'm going to do a futures bet on the entirety of the NFL playoffs. Tel me what you think / make your own picks Rondo OutRosez Scottie4Hottie I've got: Titans @ Chiefs Bills @ JagsFalcons @ RamsPanthers @ SaintsTitans @ PatriotsJaguars @ Steelers Rams @ Vikings Saints @ Eagles Jaguars @ PatriotsSaints @ Rams Saints vs Patriots |
|
|
|
|
Post by OutRosez on Jan 3, 2018 21:10:30 GMT
So I'm going to do a futures bet on the entirety of the NFL playoffs. Tel me what you think / make your own picks Rondo OutRosez Scottie4Hottie I've got: Titans @ Chiefs Bills @ JagsFalcons @ RamsPanthers @ SaintsTitans @ PatriotsJaguars @ Steelers Rams @ Vikings Saints @ Eagles Jaguars @ PatriotsSaints @ Rams Saints vs PatriotsI was looking at Titans +9. Personally I'm staying away from the Jags because they could make the AFC championship game or lose in the first imo. Aside from that, I generally think that's probably right. Although maybe Vikings beat Rams and make the Superbowl. |
|
|
|
|
Post by Rondo on Jan 3, 2018 21:17:27 GMT
Yea I’m leaning towards the Vikings beating rams and saints. That defense is legit, and defense wins games in playoffs.
|
|
|
|
|
Post by tsk on Jan 3, 2018 21:22:47 GMT
Yea I’m leaning towards the Vikings beating rams and saints. That defense is legit, and defense wins games in playoffs. Rams defense is no joke either, plus at this point i think it's fair to say McVay is an offensive genius. the second time he saw seattle (granted a more injured seattle) he knocked their fucking teeth in. I expect a much more prolific offense this time around against the vikings. |
|
|
